How Much Money Will Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny Make At The Box Office? Not Enough

Virtually ever since Disney purchased Lucasfilm for more than $4 billion in 2012, they have been trying to get Harrison Ford back for one more go-around as Indiana Jones. It took a whole lot longer than anyone expected, but "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" is set to hit theaters at the end of June as one of this summer's biggest blockbusters. The question is, will it send the cinematic icon out on a high note? Early box office tracking suggests that won't be the case. And, frankly, even in a best-case scenario right now, the movie won't make nearly enough to turn it into a hit.

The latest estimates from Box Office Pro have the fifth "Indiana Jones" movie taking in anywhere between $68 and $102 million on its opening weekend. That's a broad range, but most tracking has the film landing in the $60 to $70 million range. That having been said, tracking for big blockbusters has been way off in the post-pandemic landscape, so it's probably worth looking at a wider range when discussing a movie of this size. Given that "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" opened to $100.1 million en route to $790 million worldwide 15 years ago — a movie that is very much maligned by fans, mind you — Disney is certainly hoping for a number closer to the high end of those projections.

Unfortunately, there is much working against director James Mangold's send-off for Ford's beloved adventurer. This is the first time that Steven Spielberg has not been in the director's chair for an "Indy" movie, and that is no small thing. Thus far, reviews have been pretty mixed, though /Film's Lex Briscuso called it "blazingly fun" in her review following the Cannes screening. But mixed reviews aren't the big issue here — it's the film's inexcusably large budget.

As was reported several months back, "Dial of Destiny" carries an eye-melting $300 million budget. That figure, it is very much worth noting, does not include marketing. So, after marketing, conservatively speaking, Disney is probably $400 million in the hole. Given that theaters generally keep around half of all money made from ticket sales, you're talking about needing at least $800 million at the global box office to have a chance at breaking even. That number is all but entirely out of the question, meaning the budget is going to almost assuredly keep the film from breaking even during its theatrical run, forget about turning a profit.

Let's say the film does, indeed, debut with around $70 million domestically, which would be around 30% less than "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull." If we presume a similar decline for the film's total theatrical run, "Dial of Destiny" would pull in just north of $550 million worldwide. That's a damn fine sum and, if this movie had a $185 million budget like its predecessor, it might even be considered a modest success.

Unfortunately, franchise film budgets have spiraled out of control and that's preventing even big hits from becoming profitable. Similarly, "Fast X" rolled into theaters with a $340 million budget. Granted, the pandemic inflated these budgets a bit, but numbers this high are downright absurd. Some of the year's biggest theatrical earners are still going to lose money and that is something Hollywood is going to have to reckon with sooner rather than later. "Indy 5" figures to be one of those movies.

The cast for the film also includes Phoebe Waller-Bridge ("Fleabag"), Antonio Banderas ("Pain and Glory"), John Rhys-Davies ("Raiders of the Los Ark"), Shaunette Renee Wilson ("Black Panther"), Thomas Kretschmann ("Das Boot"), Toby Jones ("Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom"), Boyd Holbrook ("Logan"), and Mads Mikkelsen ("Doctor Strange").

"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" hits theaters on June 30, 2023.