Transformers: Rise Of The Beasts Is In A Tight Race With Spider-Verse At The Weekend Box Office

In December 2018, "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" faced a brutally tough second weekend. After just one week in theaters, it had to try and hold its own at the Christmas box office against three major new releases: "Aquaman," "Bumblebee," and "Mary Poppins Returns." 

Inevitably, "Into the Spider-Verse" got knocked down to fourth place — but that wasn't the end of the story. The ambitious animated superhero story had dropped just 53.4 percent from its opening weekend, despite all the fresh competition. That strong hold continued in the weeks and months that followed, and "Spider-Verse" went on to outgross "Bumblebee" at the domestic office and "Mary Poppins Returns" at the worldwide box office.

Almost five years later, there's a sense of déja vu as "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" once again faces second-weekend competition from the release of a new "Transformers" movie. This time, it's a much tighter race. Per The Hollywood Reporter, Friday's numbers indicate that "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" will eke out a victory, claiming the No. 1 spot with an opening weekend in the vicinity of $60 million. That's Paramount's estimate, anyway; THR notes that it's "on the high end of expectations," and according to The Wrap, industry estimates point to a slightly lower $58 million weekend.

Meanwhile, Sony's estimate of a $56 million second weekend for "Across the Spider-Verse" is considered conservative, and some analysts are predicting that it will hold on to the No. 1 spot for a second weekend. Of course, the ranking doesn't matter much outside of adding a little sports-like excitement for us box office watchers. What's really fascinating is that an animated superhero movie is now a serious threat to the opening weekend of a core "Transformers" sequel.

The COVID-19 pandemic didn't kill cinema, as some feared it might, but it did shift the balance of power at the box office. In the years prior, Disney movies (including Pixar) completely dominated the medium of animation when it came to ticket sales. Now, Universal Pictures has emerged as the new champion with success stories like Illumination's "Minions: The Rise of Gru" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie," and DreamWorks' sleeper hit "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish." 

The huge box office leap between the first and second "Spider-Verse" movies reflects an expansion of possibilities when it comes to animation. There's no shortage of animated feature films based on Marvel and DC comics, but the vast majority of them have been consigned to direct-to-video releases since "Batman: Mask of the Phantasm" flopped at the box office in 1993. "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" was no monster hit in its opening weekend, grossing a relatively modest $35 million. But last weekend, "Across the Spider-Verse" scored a debut of $120 million — a bigger opening weekend than either of the Marvel Cinematic Universe movies released so far this year.

When "Into the Spider-Verse" was jostled down to fourth place in 2018, it was probably barely thought of as competition by studios who were focused on hitting that lucrative holiday box office. But while "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" is tracking for a higher opening weekend than the last primary franchise entry, "Transformers: The Last Knight" ($44.6 million), it's also taking an unexpected beating from Miles Morales and the Spider-Force. With the release of "Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse" less than a year away, studios may want to think twice before sending any tentpole titles into battle against it.