The Little Mermaid Splashes Towards A $118 Million Holiday Weekend At The Box Office [Update]

Update: With Saturday's numbers in, "The Little Mermaid" is now on track to gross $118 million over the holiday weekend, and $96 million over the three-day weekend (per Variety). That's lower than earlier projections, but still a strong start. 2019's "Aladdin" opened with $91.5 million and went on to gross $355 million domestic. Overseas numbers also came in lower than anticipated, with the movie grossing an estimated $68.3 million from 51 international markets. Variety reports that the film has a $250 million production budget, so it will need to keep up momentum in the coming weeks to break even. Original article follows.

The unstoppable march of the Disney live-action remakes continues — over both land and sea. The Memorial Day weekend brings Rob Marshall's new take on "The Little Mermaid," starring the golden-voiced Halle Bailey in the titular role, and the numbers so far indicate an opening weekend similar to Jon Favreau's 2016 adaptation of "The Jungle Book."

Per The Hollywood Reporter, Disney estimates that "The Little Mermaid" will gross between $120 and $130 million over the four-day holiday weekend, after Thursday previews and Friday ticket sales brought in $38 million. That's the consensus at Variety and Deadline as well, though THR notes that some analysts think the movie could end up north of $130 million. Over the three-day weekend, Deadline estimates that the live-action adaptation is set to bring in $104 million at the domestic box office. Overseas, it's tracking for an $80 million opening weekend following a day-and-date release in most major international markets.

The reception from critics is balanced similarly to 2017's "Beauty and the Beast," with "The Little Mermaid" currently holding a Rotten Tomatoes score of 67%. General audiences are more positive; the movie has been given an "A" CinemaScore based on exit polling. 

Though Disney had produced a few live-action remakes in the more distant past, like "101 Dalmations," the current era of "reimaginings" (the preferred Disney branding) kicked off in 2010 with Tim Burton's "Alice in Wonderland" — still one of the most successful releases so far, grossing more than $1 billion at the international box office. The current reigning champion at the box office is "The Lion King," which grossed $1.656 billion. Like "The Little Mermaid," it received mixed reviews from critics, but an "A" CinemaScore from audience polling.

If "Little Mermaid" remains on track for that three-day weekend total of $104 million, it will just about edge out "The Jungle Book" ($103.6 million) to claim the fourth-biggest opening for a Disney live-action remake. That's a good place to be: the tale of Mowgli the man-cub grossed $966.5 million by the end of its theatrical run. 

It's worth noting, however, that a lot rests on the international box office, since the most successful Disney live-action remakes have made 60-70 percent of their worldwide totals overseas. With the foreign box office for "The Little Mermaid" looking somewhat soft compared to its domestic opening, it's unlikely to make "Jungle Book" money — but it is looking like another success story for Disney nonetheless.