Who Will Win In The Succession Finale: Kendall Or Shiv?

This post contains spoilers for "Succession" through season 4's penultimate episode. 

Now that Roman's all but disqualified himself in his bid for control, the final battle of "Succession" boils down to Shiv versus Kendall. Shiv is making an alliance with Matsson and Mencken to force the GoJo deal through, after which Shiv will (apparently) be named the U.S. CEO. Meanwhile, Kendall hopes to block the deal and name himself the sole CEO of the company, no Roman or Shiv involved. Who will win in the end? Will either of them win? Only time will tell.

It's particularly depressing to see these two on track to becoming enemies, much like Ewan and Logan before them, because Shiv and Kendall have had a ton of sweet moments in the show together. Kendall defends Shiv when Tom called her unhinged during the election, just as Shiv finally let her guard down after Kendall got surprisingly candid with her in season 2. More so than any of the other siblings, these two genuinely seem to respect each other.

Unfortunately, this means they're also threatened by each other's success. Rarely has Kendall been more rattled than in early season 2 when he first realized Shiv was now in competition with him, just as Shiv's always believed (even when Kendall was at his lowest) that Logan would probably pick him over her. Both characters have a decent claim to being their father's favorite child, and they both know it. So in a way, it makes perfect sense that the finale would boil down to them. But how will this all play out?

Despite his setback with Mencken in "Church and State," Kendall still has a pretty good claim to the throne. He's the only sibling with his name underlined (debatably) in Logan's will, and with the news of GoJo's shoddy India numbers recently released, he can make a decent argument to back out of the deal. Shiv may have been right that the GoJo scandal likely wouldn't get much media coverage in the immediate aftermath of the contested election, but the law doesn't solely base itself on what the public cares about. The scandal might not be getting a lot of attention now, but Kendall should be able to make a convincing argument that it'll become a big problem later. 

The other thing in Kendall's favor is that Mencken still seems like he can be persuaded back over to him, and he's still got Hugo firmly on his side. He's also successfully inflated the company's worth with the Living+ situation; sure, those numbers will come crashing down soon, but with each episode of the season only covering a day, it seems unlikely this is an issue Kendall will have to deal with before the show's over. 

Kendall can also make a legitimate case that Matsson is undervaluing ATN. As we've seen throughout the show, ATN is valuable not necessarily because of the money it makes but because of the political power it wields. Whoever's in charge of ATN doesn't just get to make a ton of money; they also get to decide the direction America goes. Matsson has little reason to appreciate this, but the other people on the board likely do. 

Shiv's got one major thing going for her: Besides Kendall, Roman and Hugo, everyone else on the board has pretty strong reasons to go through with the deal. Matsson's offer back in "Kill List" is so good it's almost impossible to refuse. Even Stewy, Kendall's good long-time friend, has made it very clear that he's only interested in what will make him more money, and Shiv's plan is the one that'll do that for him. 

There's also the issue that, no matter what happens with the election, the outcome will probably favor Shiv. They've already given Mencken what he wants, so he has little incentive to return the favor anymore, and it's hard to imagine Jimenez ever returning the favor considering how badly Kendall and Roman hurt him on election night. Either way, the instability caused by Kendall and Roman's actions is something most of the board members likely want to distance themselves from. 

If worse comes to worst, Shiv's also got the "dead waiter" card she can play at any moment. Ever since Kendall accidentally killed a waiter back in season 1, we've been wondering if this would ever come to meaningfully harm him. And once he revealed the incident to Roman and Shiv, some fans have felt that it's inevitable one of them will eventually weaponize this information. I don't think it's particularly likely that Shiv would stoop so low, but it wouldn't be completely out of left field if she did. Shiv winning by going scorched earth would certainly make a dramatic, if grim, resolution to the series. 

Then again, Kendall isn't the only one with skeletons in his closet. If Shiv brings up the waiter, Kendall can bring up the time she intimidated a witness from coming forward about the sexual assaults on the cruises. It's unlikely either of them will ever face jail time over these incidents, but it can certainly damage their social standing at a time where they can't afford many setbacks.

The other possibility is that the deal goes through, Matsson gets control of the company, and he simply chooses to not appoint Shiv. Fans throughout this season have speculated that Matsson's been playing Shiv, a theory only bolstered by Matsson's subtle refusal to straightforwardly agree to putting Shiv in charge. In "Church and State" he tells Shiv he's down with an "American CEO," and Shiv clearly thinks he referring to her, but what if he isn't?

There's a fun theory out there that Matsson's planning to install Greg the Egg as his American puppet CEO. It sounds ridiculous, but is it? Matsson's appeared to have taken a liking to Greg in recent episodes, and it's not like "Succession" hasn't alluded to the possibility already. As serious as the show gets at times, it's also part comedy, and this is the funniest possible ending the show could pick. It's like Bran being named King at the end of "Game of Thrones," except this show wouldn't try to convince viewers we're supposed to be happy about it. 

The more likely development would be that someone completely outside the Roy family would get the role instead, someone like Stewy or Gerri, who have competent, straightforward qualities that Matsson would likely appreciate. Whoever Matsson picks, there are a million more stable options than one of the Roys.

Although Shiv and Kendall would both be devastated if they miss their shot at CEO, this wouldn't exactly be a tragic ending for either of them. As we've watched them both slowly erode what was left of their souls over these past few seasons, it feels like the real sad ending for Kendall or Shiv would be them getting exactly what they think they want. 

After all, Shiv in the penultimate episode has fully let go of any ideals she might've had, and has seemingly made peace with the fact that her CEO position would ensure she'd barely ever spend time with her own child. Meanwhile, Kendall's never been crueler to his ex-wife Rava than he's been here, nor has he ever been so estranged from his own children. At the beginning of this season I argued that Kendall's stable, relatively healthy relationship with Jess has been a major thing that proves him to be better than his father, so the recent dissolution of that relationship isn't a good sign either. 

What's frustrating about all this is that, unlike most people, Kendall and Shiv don't have to sacrifice much to spend time with their families. If Kendall wanted to quit his job and dedicate his life to being a good, present father for his kids, he can easily do this without ever needing to worry about money. Shiv can also make her marriage with Tom work and be a better parent than Caroline ever was, if only she could content herself with not being one of the most powerful people in the world. If "Succession" ends on an apparent downer, with all the Roy siblings having their CEO dreams dashed before them forever, maybe that's the happiest ending we can hope for.