Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 Achieves Marvel's Best Second Weekend Box Office Hold In Years

Update 5/14/23: "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" ended up outperforming Saturday's box office projections. Variety reports that its second weekend total is $60.5 million, a drop of just 49 percent from its opening weekend. That's the best second weekend hold for an MCU movie since 2018's "Black Panther." Original article follows.

Way to go, a-holes! Following a relatively modest opening weekend, "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is bucking the trend when it comes to a common feature of Marvel Cinematic Universe movies: the big second weekend drop. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the trilogy-closer is on track to add $58 million to its domestic box office total this weekend, which would be a drop of just 51 percent from its debut. That's the strongest second weekend hold for an MCU movie since 2019's "Spider-Man: Far From Home." 

To compare it to another Marvel threequel, "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is performing similarly to "Thor: Ragnarok," which was seen as a triumphant comeback after the mediocrity of "Thor: The Dark World" and dropped just 53.5 percent in its second weekend. Like "Ragnarok," "Vol. 3" has been very well-received by critics and fans alike, with an A CinemaScore from audience polling and a "Certified Fresh" score of 82 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Positive word of mouth and repeat viewings are no doubt contributing to this strong hold.

Since the $58 million projection is based on Friday's numbers, "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" could still end up falling short of that number — but it could also surpass it. Last weekend it was headed for an estimated $110 million Thursday to Sunday total, but ended up grossing $118.4 million. Crucially, the film is also performing well in foreign markets, and Forbes estimates that it will pass $500 million worldwide by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere in the MCU, second weekend drops of 60 percent or more have become pretty standard — and that's partly by design. Studios get a larger slice of box office ticket sales early on in the theatrical release window, so Marvel Studios movies lean on surprise cameos and post-credits scenes that fans won't want spoiled. Adding a little stick to go with that carrot, Marvel has a very short official moratorium on spoilers; a poster revealing the return of Corey Stoll's character as MODOK was dropped on social media just one week after the release of "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania." 

But while these front-loaded releases have been a big part of Marvel's success story so far, the magic seems to be running dry. "Quantumania" only grossed $106 million in its opening weekend, less than "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," and suffered a brutal second weekend drop of almost 70 percent.

Between its strong sophomore hold and its performance overseas, "Vol. 3" is on track to make more in 10 days than "Quantumania" made in its entire theatrical run. The real test, though, is looming on the horizon. Next weekend, the Guardians will face off against another formidable family when Dominic Toretto and his pals arrive on the scene in "Fast X." Then the movie will have to face "The Little Mermaid" and "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse," respectively, in its fourth and fifth weekends.

But even if the galaxy's greatest heroes get cooked off in the summer heat, it doesn't actually matter much. Director James Gunn wrote "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" as a definitive closing chapter to the trilogy before he departs the MCU to head up the revamped DC Universe, so there are no further sequels whose fate depends on this movie passing a certain milestone at the box office. The Guardians have already made it over the finish line.