Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 Flies Away To $118 Million At The Box Office [Update]

Update: After initially being projected for a $110 million debut, the Guardians ended up beating the odds with a final opening weekend tally of $118.4 million. Original article follows.

The Guardians of the Galaxy have returned for one last adventure, almost a decade after the misfit bunch debuted in theaters. The first "Guardians of the Galaxy" movie had many doubters, with widespread speculation that it would be the first Marvel Cinematic Universe film to bomb at the box office. Instead, it enjoyed a $94 million opening weekend and powered its way to a worldwide total of $772 million.

Per The Hollywood Reporter, "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is set to surpass the original feature with an expected opening weekend total of $110 million. That's on the lower end of the early box office projections, which ranged from $110 to $130 million. It's also considerably lower than the opening weekend for "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2," which debuted to $146.5 million at the domestic box office. And with a $250 million budget, "Vol. 3" has a higher bar to clear before breaking even, compared to the original movie's production costs of $170 million.

This continues a recent trend of superhero sequels starting to gross less, not more, than the previous entry in the franchise. "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" was a particularly notable example of this, failing to break even during its theatrical run. 

Still, one advantage that "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" has over "Quantumania" is the warmth of feeling towards it — from critics and fans alike. The trilogy-closer is "Certified Fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes with a score of 81% (compared to 47% for Quantumania), and has landed an A CinemaScore based on audience exit polling this weekend ("Quantumania" got a B grade). "Vol. 3" still has a chance to break even through stamina and repeat viewings – that is, if it doesn't get crushed by the arrival of "Fast X" on May 19.

When domestic box office numbers are lower than hoped, strong performance overseas can sometimes make up the difference. The last two "Guardians of the Galaxy" movies made 56.9% and 54.9% of their worldwide totals from foreign markets, and "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is off to a good start internationally. According to THR, the movie has grossed $71.5 million overseas in its first three days (it debuted on Wednesday in the U.K., presumably to get ahead of competition with King Charles' coronation at the weekend), bringing its global total to $119.7 million by the end of Friday.

One factor holding Marvel Studios movies back from breaking global box office records these days is the loss of China as a reliable market. Marvel films are now releasing in China again after several years of being cut off by the Chinese government, and "Vol. 3" had a day-and-date release, but it remains to be seen how well it will perform. "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" earned a relatively paltry $19.1 million in its opening weekend at the Chinese box office, and grossed just $39.4 million by the end of its theatrical run.