M3GAN Slays At The Box Office With $30 Million Debut, But Avatar: The Way Of Water Keeps The Crown [Update]

Update 01/08/2023: "M3GAN" has outperformed projections once again! Initially pegged for a $17-20 million opening weekend after Thursday previews, the estimate was updated to $27 million when Friday's numbers came in. Now, Variety reports that the horror film is looking at a $30.2 million domestic debut — a truly impressive start, and a welcome boost for theaters in the typically quiet opening week of January. "M3GAN" has also brought in $14.8 million to date from overseas, with a current worldwide total of $45 million. This number can be expected to grow next weekend, when it opens in major international markets like the U.K., Australia, and India.

Original article follows.

James Cameron might want to put up extra security around his house, because M3GAN isn't the type of girl who likes being put in second place. Has Jake Sully ever spawned a viral dance craze on TikTok? I don't think so.

Still, M3GAN has every reason to be happy about her opening weekend box office. According to Variety, the evil doll horror movie from director Gerard Johnstone ("Housebound") and screenwriter Akela Cooper ("Malignant") is on track for a $27 million domestic debut after grossing $11.7 million in ticket sales on Friday. The updated estimate far outstrips yesterday's projections, which had "M3GAN" pegged for a $17-20 million opening. While we won't have final weekend numbers for a couple more days, this is an important reminder not to underestimate ... her. 

Despite the fresh competition, "Avatar: The Way of Water" has held on to the number one spot in its fourth weekend, with Variety estimating that Cameron's sequel will add another $35 to $43 million at the domestic box office. That would mark a drop of 33-45% from the previous weekend, but with a running total of $1.56 billion, "The Way of Water" is already in the safe zone. Cameron himself said that the movie will "easily" pass its break-even point this week, joking that it "looks like I can't wiggle out of [making the sequels]."

With box office numbers lower on average than other times of the year, January and February are generally considered to be "dump months," where the film industry drops off movies it doesn't want to waste more lucrative release slots on. But the lack of tentpole releases has allowed horror to carve out a place for itself in the quieter months. Last January, "Scream" scored an impressive $30 million opening on its way to a worldwide total of $140 million.

With a production budget of $12 million, "M3GAN" is already close to breaking even, depending on the marketing spend for the movie — which may have been substantial, given the troupe of dancing M3GANs we've seen out and about. Still, last year's "Smile" proved that eye-grabbing marketing stunts can pay off nicely at the box office.

"M3GAN" may also be getting a boost from rave reviews. The movie currently has an impressive critic score of 94% on Rotten Tomatoes, with reviews praising it for embracing the camp silliness of the premise (a prototype "best friend" android doll goes rogue and slaughters people while looking fabulous). /Film's Jeff Ewing said "there's something to enjoy in just about every single minute of its runtime." If that hype translates into positive word of mouth, there's a chance for "M3GAN" to steal the crown from "Avatar: The Way of Water" next weekend.